Super Bowl Armageddon

Ohhhhhhhh baby…I still can’t wrap my head around the fact that this matchup is actually happening, another chance at these guys, another chance for the fans at least to mentally avenge 07…it almost seems surreal that this matchup, and season for that matter, has shaken out the way it has…I have to say, this feels a lot different than 2007/2008…between comments from Heath Evans, Bruschi, Harrison and the general attitude of Belichick, Brady, Wilfork, Welker, etc. you get the sense that the pursuit of perfection in 2007 really wore on the team, and I feel like it did on the fans too.  The last 3 years have made this run so much more enjoyable…yes, I realize 3 years of not making the Super Bowl forcing you to appreciate what you have is the very definition of champagne problems, but that’s how I feel.  I’m making a concerted effort to enjoy this one, though now we’re so close to completing the ultimate revenge tour I’ll probably feel different come Sunday, 6ish…it is a delicate balance between appreciating being back in the Super Bowl and wanting to finish the deal.  There is a piece of me that legitimately wondered whether Brady & Belichick would ever get back to this stage together, and I wouldn’t be surprised if deep down they wondered the same thing.

Scariest part of this one?  The consequences of a loss are devastating…you can say a lot of things about Belichick/Brady, but for them to have a coach/QB nemesis would be the utmost.  I don’t even want to think about that…

I have so many thoughts on the Baltimore game, but life/work prevented me from getting them on paper and too much time has passed at this point…maybe some other time, let’s dive right into the final leg of the revenge tour…a lot of this stuff has been covered locally/nationally as you can expect, but I’m going for it anyways…

• You definitely get the sense that Belichick has learned his lesson from that this go around…whether it is from having his team too tense in the last Super Bowl run and last season against the Jets, Belichick certainly has lightened up.  His relaxed attitude has reinforced my enjoyment and appreciation of this run, and I think it is a combination of a lot of factors.  Heath Evans said Belichick ran the players into the ground on Thursday/Friday and they didn’t have their legs in 07…in addition to moving the team to a hotel in the “hood” (Evans’ words, not mine) the night before the game.  I wonder how much he learned from that experience.  I also think the presence of Josh McDaniels in addition to O’Brien takes a huge burden off of Belichick to be deeply involved on both sides of the ball, allowing him to watch more film, game plan, focus on the defense, etc.  I also wonder if there is a piece of Belichick and Brady that deep down wondered if they would ever get back to this place…nothing to back me up on that whatsoever, and more likely than not the competitors in both of them refused to let that enter their psyche, but maybe it’s possible they were skeptical.  But, I think the most important reason Belichick is so relaxed this go around is for the simple fact he loves this team and he said as much this week.  He said this week and several times throughout the season that he never had to put in extra effort to motivate the team, they always showed up to work ready and willing to learn, and he just falt out appreciated this team and their commitment to playing for a tough coach like him.  I think he looks at this team and loves what he has built…a tough, smart team willing to work hard, take coaching, and be mentally tough.  This team is loaded with 18 players drafted in the 5th round or later and countless guys who are off the street…several months back, after jettisoning turds like Haynesworth, Bodden, etc., the one positive you could pull from a group of players like this was the simple fact that they will embrace the coaching more than a player with heralded talent might (Butler, Meriweather)…they owe their careers to Belichick taking a chance on them, so anything he says to them is gospel and they’ll do whatever he says. 

• If you asked me to take into consideration the matchup on both sides of the ball combined and choose the toughest matchup of the 31 teams in this league, I’d say the Giants present the biggest challenge for the Pats.  Defensively, they can generate pressure without blitzing, the types of defenses that always give us problems…offensively, the weapons are just filthy and present tons of problems for us, especially when they spread it out and force us to go nickel/dime.  Their receivers are going to make plays in this game, you have to mentally prepare yourself for that fact, the question is how much can the Pats minimize the number of those plays and the magnitude of the ones they do give up.

• DB’s vs. their WR’s is a real scary matchup…you have to believe that even though BB will play a lot of zone to avoid big plays, these guys are going to have to make some plays on the ball at some point…my big concern is the slot where we’ll see some Edelman, Giants will certainly see that and try to get Cruz matched up with him.  Their receivers are going to make plays in this game, plain and simple…our DB’s are terrible at turning around for the ball and making plays on balls in the air…I could absolutely see Eli heaving the ball downfield and forcing us into a PI or their receivers will make a play…I feel like we get burned on broken plays all the time…

• To me, the most interesting X’s and O’s angle of this game is how the Pats plan to attack the Giants defense…Heath Evans was on Felger’s show today and talked a little bit about where they went wrong in 2007 against the Giants and how they abandoned their plan to run the ball down the Giants’ throats to neutralize their pass rushers and started throwing the ball all over the place.  Hearing this, I wonder how much they try and balance running the ball with BenJarvs/Woodhead with the no-huddle offense they didn’t have available in their arsenal in week 9.  Mike Reiss has pointed out that in the first game, the Pats clearly tried to establish the run, set up play-action and in doing that took away their own strength, resulting in poor field position and ultimately a 0-0 game at halftime.  I think a key in this game will be to see how they balance their up-tempo game with running the ball, especially considering the fatigue factor that comes with playing indoors (their first since Thanksgiving last year) and the fact that their initial game plan for the last two meetings with the Giants has been to run right at those pass rushers. 

• I have a hunch that they will have the exact same game plan to start this one as they did in week 9: run the ball down their throats…I think Ridley coming out and declaring that he absolutely will be active for this game says a lot to me…he probably got himself in trouble with the coaches, but if he is that adamant about playing, I suspect part of their game plan will be to establish the run early and see if they can work play action.

• It is going to be interesting to see how their game plan evolves during the game…apparently in 07 their game plan was to run it down their throats, they abandoned that plan and it screwed them…in the week 9 they stuck with the run too long and essentially eliminated what they do best in throwing the ball.  As I mentioned earlier, I’ll be watching how much they balance the run with the pass throughout the course of this game.  Another thing to keep an eye on is how effective will the no-huddle be with a limited Gronk.  He is such a focal point for Brady in that package, either running the ball with matchups against DB’s or catching passes, and if he isn’t the same/doesn’t have the strength to keep up with the no huddle tempo, will it be as effective?

• I think an interesting angle to this game is Josh McDaniels’ presence…him and Belichick had their worst days as coaches the last go around, and this game will say a lot about how much both of them learned from abandoning their game plan in the Super Bowl.

• Is the o-line better this time around?  I say unequivocally it is…you essentially have replaced Stephen Neal & Nick Kaczur with Brian Waters and a combo of Solder/Vollmer.  I have confidence in this group, no doubt…but they are in fact going to have to play their best game as a unit, as well you should in the biggest game of the year.

• My biggest concern with Gronk’s injury is how he holds up as the game progresses…I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him look pretty good in the early going, catch a few passes, start woofin at the crowd, etc…my concern is how he holds up with a 30-minute halftime and the ankle gets stiff, Toradol wears off, etc.  It also wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see this guy be nearly 100% for the entire game, he is the epitome of toughness and I think you can’t apply traditional medical rationale to this guy…

• Gronk’s injury puts even more stress on the outside receivers of this team, specifically Deion Branch…if we’re going to win this game with Gronk at less than 100%, we need either Deion Branch or Ocho to have strong games, and I’m obviously focusing more on the former.  The only thing we can lean on when it comes to Branch is the fact that he is a big-game player…that’s it…he simply can’t create separation like he used to, so he’ll need to rely on his instincts, and to be frank, his sack in big games.  Ocho will not be a factor, other than possibly a straight go-route to keep the second level honest…

• Almost as important as Gronk’s injury is whether Vollmer will be healthy…we need the depth in this game more than ever and he could be effective against a line that is real good at tipping passes at the line…furthermore, his health allows you to be more flexible with Solder, especially if Gronk is more limited than we anticipate and he has fill that role on run plays, etc.

• Really hope this doesn’t come down to Gostkowski in some capacity, I have zero faith in him…he really hasn’t been put to the test in his six seasons with the Pats…he did hit a big kick against San Diego on the road in 2006 that squeeked through the left upright…but he then followed that up the next season by kicking the ball out of bounds against the Giants and subsequently wasn’t trusted enough to kick a 47-yard field goal by the coaching staff…and he missed a freaking 27-yarder against the Giants to close out the first half earlier this season.

• I mentioned this earlier, but isn’t it crazy to think the Pats haven’t played indoors since Thanksgiving of last year, and in their previous 4 they are 0-4?  Bruschi mentioned several times that the biggest factor in playing indoors is conditioning, a huge focus in practice last week for the Pats…just look at the Rams/Panthers Super Bowls and Colts game in 06 for evidence of how the defenses wear down as the game progresses…

• Defensively, it will be interesting to see how this defense looks against the Giants without Andre Carter and Fat Albert, who both were active for that last game.  Vince can handle their o-line, I have no doubt about that, it’s the matchup in the secondary that terrifies me.  Spikes was having a real strong game last time before he got hurt early in the third quarter…if he can stay on the field, he’ll give you a handful of impact plays.

• Speaking of defense, here’s some breaking news brought to you by the Giants defensive line: pressuring Tom Brady forces him to make bad decisions and he’s not a God…wow, real groundbreaking stuff from you guys, thanks for that tremendous insight.  Wait, so you mean Brady is a human being and pressuring a QB makes them feel uncomfortable?  Wow…

 

• I don’t love it because of his injury history, but don’t be surprised to see Hernando in the backfield again in this game trying to take advantage of mismatches.

 

• I would love to see Gronk get involved early and give a gutteral scream right in their faces…whether he can sustain that is the real question, but as a fan, that’s what I want…

 

• How good is Belichick?  Last week he ran the team ragged and focused on conditioning, knowing that they haven’t played indoors since Thanksgiving of last year and how stamina will be a key late in the game…and now we hear that he exactly simulated the Super Bowl halftime, forcing them to take a 31-minute break and even talked to them during halftime like he would during the game.  Whether this translates into a win we don’t know, but it just helps crystallize how prepared Belichick’s teams are for anything.

I have so many more thoughts on this game, I’m way too jacked up for this thing, all I can think about at work, home, whatever…Pats are back in the Super Bowl, pretty awesome…trying to strike a balance between enjoying this accomplishment with anxiety about this game and consequences of both outcomes…Super Bowl tashe, LET’S FCKING TRASH THIS PLACE!!!