Theo Tuesday

The Red Sox are still a hot mess right now, except this time it is in the front office rather than the field.  I’ve been a huge Theo supporter for a long time and cringe when fans/media point to his free agent failures as the reason he should be fired.  The fact of the matter is a big-market GM’s job is significantly more difficult than a small market GM in my opinion.  Small market GM’s only need to focus on low-level free agents and the farm system…they can simply throw their hands up and say they can’t afford this guy and move on.  Larger market GM’s not only are tasked to restock and develop the farm system, but they’re responsible for making high-ticket decisions on free agents too.  Free agency is the most flawed mechanism to try and improve your team, as you always overpay and simply don’t have information on the makeup & intangibles of a player like you do of a player that comes up through your system.  Now the flip side to the woe-is-me large-market-GM argument is the fact that their mistakes are more easily absorbed than mid-level teams…just look at Theo’s recent stretch and how until recently we’ve been able to overcome his free agent gaffes.  I think Theo is one of the smartest, hard-working GM’s in baseball and would love to keep him here a few more years, particularly to see how he tries to clean up this mess.  But there is a piece of me that wouldn’t be as disappointed as I would’ve been 3-4 years ago if he left.

First, front offices are getting smarter…maybe 5 years ago Theo was at the top of his profession and perceived to be an innovative mind in the game of baseball, but now there are plenty of smart GM’s and baseball ops guys throughout the game, some even Theo disciples.  Don’t tell me that Theo is the only smart developer of young talent and that no other executive can do just a little bit better in their pro-level evaluations.  For all of the credit given to Theo for his development of homegrown talent, some of it might be a bit overblown.  As Jon Paul Morosi pointed out a few weeks before the collapse concluded, Theo has been responsible for drafting the last 8 seasons and do you know how many homegrown pitchers have thrown 200 innings for us and how many times?  Jon Lester and once, that’s it…to Theo’s defense, we have traded away some pitching talent over the years (Anibal Sanchez, Justin Masterson, Casey Kelly), but still you have to do better than that with the resources at your disposal.

Finally, I think Theo gets a little too much credit for bringing two World Series’ to Boston.  He certainly deserves credit for 2004 with his recruitment of Schilling, signing of Foulke, trading Nomar, and ultimately re-shaping the lineup with guys like Ortiz, Millar, Mueller, Bellhorn, etc.  But, Derek Lowe, Pedro, Manny, Varitek, Nixon, and Damon (Theo was asst. GM when they signed him) were holdovers from Duquette.  I’m not taking anything away from Theo in 2004 because he deserves credit for keeping the correct existing resources and complementing them with the right pieces…a smart executive analyzes what he has and makes the most of it.  But in 2007, the most valuable players were Manny, Lowell, and Beckett.  It is widely believed that Theo would not have made the Hanley for Beckett-Lowell swap had he been on the job and not touring with Pearl Jam, and Manny was here before he arrived.  Sure, Crisp, Ellsbury, Lester, Schilling, and even Dice K & Lugo had roles in the championship, but since Manny left, we are 1-2 in playoff series.

Another piece of me just thinks it is time for Theo to move on and his passion for winning here isn’t what it was.  Part of me thinks he didn’t want to sign Lackey or Crawford, but was forced to do so from a business perspective and that’s why he wants the president title with another team, so that baseball decisions can be exclusively left up to baseball people and not influenced by the business arm of the team.  I don’t know what I think at this point, all I know is we’re back to the old Red Sox disaster plan where the media starts taking sides and everything you read is spun somehow to benefit the hand that feeds that media member…just make a decision and allocate your energy towards fixing that clubhouse rather than a front office power struggle, nobody cares…

Before I wrap up, a couple quick links…Rosenthal gives his take on the Theo situation and basically says the Sox should seek stability and re-sign Theo rather than have a “nervous breakdown” as one rival GM calls it.  Also, how about old friend Adrian Beltre sticking it to the Rays today?  I remember watching last year as Beltre terrorized the Rays, specifically a couple one-legged bombs off Matt Garza and thought to myself he might be the only player wearing a Sox uniform over the last 4 years that hits in the Trop…